Texas Real Estate After the 2026 Election: What Could Change for Homeowners, Buyers and Sellers (November 2026)

by OnDemand Realty

Texas State Capitol dome in Austin with the U.S. and Texas flags flying against a clear blue sky

The November 3, 2026 election changed who runs Texas state government, and it is the first time in more than 30 years that Democrats have won statewide offices here. If you own a home, are thinking about buying, or plan to sell in the next year or two, the natural question is: what does Texas real estate after the 2026 election actually look like?

The honest answer is that it depends on what passes in Austin, and that will take months. Texas is not fully "blue" at the state level. Democrats won every statewide office on the ballot and are projected to control the Texas House, but Republicans kept their majority in the Texas Senate. That means most big changes will need votes from both parties.

This guide lays out what happened, what could change for property taxes, housing supply, insurance, energy costs, jobs and renting, and what people on each side of the debate expect. We quote supporters and skeptics in their own words, with links, so you can judge for yourself. OnDemand Realty takes no political position. Our job is to help you understand the market and make good decisions in it.

Key Takeaways

Democrats won every statewide office on the ballot on November 3, 2026, including governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller and land commissioner, plus the U.S. Senate seat. Results are unofficial until the state canvass.
The Legislature is divided. Democrats are projected to hold about 83 of 150 Texas House seats. Republicans kept the Texas Senate, 19 to 12.
Nothing changes overnight. The 90th Legislature convenes January 12, 2027, and the new governor takes office January 19, 2027. Most changes to property tax, zoning or landlord-tenant law need a bill to pass both chambers.
Property tax relief has support from both parties, but they disagree on how to pay for it and who should get it.
Mortgage rates are set mostly by federal policy and bond markets, not by Austin. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.18% for the week ending November 5, 2026, according to Freddie Mac.
For most households, the smart move is the same as before the election: buy or sell based on your own timeline, budget and local market, and watch the 2027 session for specific bills.

What Happened in the 2026 Texas Election

Here are the statewide results as reported by the Texas Secretary of State (unofficial, updated November 4, 2026, with 100% of polling locations reporting). Percentages are our calculations from those vote totals and include third-party and write-in votes.

Office	Winner	Defeated	Winner's Share	Margin
U.S. Senate	James Talarico (D)	Ken Paxton (R)	55.1%	12.1 points
Governor	Gina Hinojosa (D)	Greg Abbott (R, incumbent)	52.8%	7.1 points
Lieutenant Governor	Vikki Goodwin (D)	Dan Patrick (R, incumbent)	51.7%	6.1 points
Attorney General	Nathan Johnson (D)	Mayes Middleton (R)	52.4%	6.4 points
Comptroller	Sarah Eckhardt (D)	Don Huffines (R, incumbent)	51.3%	5.1 points
Land Commissioner	Benjamin Flores (D)	Dawn Buckingham (R, incumbent)	51.4%	4.5 points
Agriculture Commissioner	Clayton Tucker (D)	Nate Sheets (R)	51.3%	4.7 points
Railroad Commissioner	Jon Rosenthal (D)	Bo French (R)	52.5%	7.0 points

And here is how the Legislature shakes out, based on reporting from The Texas Tribune and KXAN:

Body	Before the Election	After (Projected)	Status
Texas House (150 seats)	88 R, 62 D	About 83 D, 67 R	Several close races still being counted
Texas Senate (31 seats)	19 R, 12 D	19 R, 12 D	Republicans keep majority
Presiding officer of the Senate	Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R)	Lt. Gov.-elect Vikki Goodwin (D)	Senate may change its rules on her powers

State Rep. Senfronia Thompson, a Houston Democrat, says she has the votes to become House speaker, according to The Texas Tribune. The Senate's Republican majority, meanwhile, was expected to consider rules that could limit the lieutenant governor's powers, though no changes have been adopted.

So the accurate way to describe Texas today is a Democratic executive branch with a divided Legislature. As Texas Realtors put it in its election recap, "But one election does not mean lasting realignment."

Who Decides What: The Legislature vs. the Governor

Before getting into each issue, it helps to know which levers each office actually controls.

The Legislature writes laws, including property tax rules, homestead exemptions, zoning preemption, landlord-tenant law and HOA law. A bill must pass both the House and the Senate. Under divided control, as KXAN summarized it: "Bills will live by bipartisanship or die."
The governor can sign or veto bills, veto individual budget items, call special sessions and appoint the heads of agencies such as the Public Utility Commission and the Texas Department of Insurance. Major appointments need two-thirds approval from the Senate, according to The Texas Tribune.
The comptroller certifies how much money the state can spend. The Legislature cannot pass a budget that exceeds that estimate.
The attorney general enforces consumer protection laws and defends state laws in court.
Voters have the final say on constitutional amendments, which is how most large property tax changes in Texas have been made.

University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus summed up the balance of power to The Texas Newsroom: "They got really good outcomes on election night, but not so much that they can do anything that they want."

Issue	What Could Change	Who Decides	Earliest Realistic Timing
Property taxes and homestead exemptions	Bigger exemptions, new funding sources, renter relief	Legislature, then often voters	2027 session; amendments go to voters after
Housing supply and zoning	Keep, expand or trim laws like SB 840 and SB 15	Legislature	2027 session
Investor home purchases	Possible state limits on large corporate buyers	Legislature	2027 session
Data centers and electricity	Moratorium on new approvals, ratepayer protections	Governor (executive), PUC, Legislature	Early 2027
Homeowners insurance	New insurance commissioner and regulatory approach	Governor appoints; Senate confirms	2027
Landlord-tenant rules	Eviction record sealing, fee transparency	Legislature	2027 session
Mortgage rates	Mostly set by bond markets and the Federal Reserve	Federal, not state	Ongoing

Property Taxes and Homestead Exemptions

This is the issue most Texas homeowners care about, and it is also where the two parties agree the most on the goal.

Texas already raised the school district homestead exemption from $100,000 to $140,000 in 2025, a change Gov.-elect Hinojosa voted for, according to Realtor.com. Homeowners 65 and older or with qualifying disabilities can receive another $60,000, for a combined $200,000 school exemption, as The Dallas Express explains. And property tax relief has a bipartisan track record: in 2025, the Texas Senate voted unanimously for that session's cuts.

What supporters of the incoming leadership expect. Hinojosa's campaign platform says: "We must end these corporate subsidies and use the savings to cut property taxes, with the end goal of eliminating residential property taxes." It adds: "We can fully fund schools and cut taxes when we end corporate welfare in Texas." (Gina for Texas)

The nonpartisan research group Every Texan, which generally favors more public investment, argues relief should be aimed differently: "Every Texan believes any property tax relief should be targeted to low-income Texans: renters, many first-time homebuyers, and many seniors as well." (Every Texan)

What skeptics and critics expect. Realtor.com noted the open funding question: replacing homeowners' school maintenance-and-operations property taxes alone would cost an estimated $8.6 billion a year, and the plan has not yet detailed how ending corporate subsidies would cover it.

The Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative think tank, says local spending is the real driver of tax bills. "Despite record property tax cuts by the state over the last two legislative sessions, Texans are not feeling relief because local governments continue to raise their property tax rate, take on large amounts of debt, and recklessly spend," said TPPF's James Quintero in the group's 2027 agenda. After the election, TPPF CEO Greg Sindelar said the group "remains focused on making Texas an affordable place to live, providing lasting property tax relief." (TPPF)

The Texas Apartment Association adds a point that matters for renters and investors: "Tax reform and relief that excludes rental housing negatively impacts housing affordability." (TAA)

What to watch: whether the 2027 session raises the homestead exemption again, whether any relief reaches rental property, and whether new limits on local tax growth move forward or stall. The Texas Tribune reported that the existing state limits on local property tax revenue "will likely stand for now." (Texas Tribune)

Housing Supply, Zoning and Permitting

Texas leads the nation in homebuilding, accounting for 14.6% of building permits issued nationwide, according to Realtor.com. In 2025, a bipartisan Legislature passed Senate Bill 840, which lets developers convert certain commercial properties to apartments without extensive rezoning, and Senate Bill 15, which allows homes on smaller lots in new subdivisions in the largest cities. Hinojosa and Goodwin both voted for both bills as House members.

What supporters expect. Industry groups see continuity. "It's neither D nor R. It's H for housing," said Scott Norman, CEO of the Texas Association of Builders. Tray Bates of Texas Realtors said: "The core problem is supply. Texas is adding people faster than it's adding homes people can afford." (Realtor.com)

Nicole Nosek of Texans for Reasonable Solutions, which pushed the 2025 housing bills, told the Tribune: "All in all, it is the same push: more housing, more affordability, until our young people, until teachers, until firefighters actually have a shot at the American dream of homeownership." (Texas Tribune)

On X, Raw Story reporter Matthew Chapman argued that Democrats from other states do not want to repeat what they left behind: "The Democrats aren't here to California your Texas. They're here to warn you before you do it yourself." (X post)

What skeptics and critics expect. Some cities, including several in Dallas-Fort Worth, want the new laws scaled back, and a Legislature friendlier to local control could listen. Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker, a Republican, said she would like SB 840 somewhat curtailed so the city can keep leverage with developers: "When you take away a lot of that authority, it strips local communities of having a say." Housing researchers worry about the opposite risk. "We're not going to dig out of this housing shortage if we have every single apartment building become a saga," said Alex Horowitz of the Pew Charitable Trusts. (Texas Tribune)

State Sen. Paul Bettencourt, a Houston Republican who chairs the Senate Local Government committee, kept both outcomes open: "There could be a lot of stalemates. And there could be agreement."

What to watch: any bill that amends SB 840 or SB 15, and how DFW suburbs like Frisco and Grand Prairie respond. New construction supply is one of the biggest reasons DFW prices have been flat to soft.

Corporate Investors and Single-Family Homes

What supporters expect. Hinojosa's platform says "corporate investors are buying up single-family homes, driving up prices and squeezing out first-time homebuyers." In 2025 she filed House Bill 2910, which would have capped covered corporate owners at 10 single-family rentals in Texas. It did not pass. (Realtor.com)

Realtor.com research found that investors accounted for 15.6% of home purchases in Dallas-Fort Worth, and that megainvestors made up 1.9% of all Texas home purchases in the first half of 2026, the highest share of any state.

What skeptics and critics expect. Realtor.com senior economist Hannah Jones said: "Texas is where this type of policy would bite hardest, though I'd still expect a modest effect on affordability." She also cautioned: "Limiting investor [single-family rental] supply would more likely push rents up than down, which works against the affordability goal."

Rental housing economist Jay Parsons was more pointed on X, writing that Hinojosa "incorrectly says 'rent has surged' (rents in Texas have grown below U.S. average over last decade, and have fallen in last 4 years-- especially her city of Austin)." He praised Lt. Gov.-elect Goodwin's approach, adding: "The 'Texas is done' narrative is silly." (X post)

Also worth knowing: a federal law enacted in July 2026 will bar institutional investors that control 350 or more single-family homes from buying more, starting in January 2027, with some exceptions, according to Realtor.com. That federal rule applies regardless of what Texas does.

Business Relocations and the Job Pipeline

Job growth drives housing demand in DFW more than almost anything else, so this is the issue that worries many sellers and investors.

What skeptics and critics expect. Some business leaders and Republicans warned about the outcome. Texas Tech regent and GOP donor Cody Campbell warned the result would "gut the great Texas economic miracle," and outgoing Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said in his concession statement that Democrats' "socialist policies will fail," as reported by The Texas Tribune. Tech investor Jason Calacanis posted on X: "Ugh, I moved here to get away from the left lunacy!" (X post)

Hinojosa has said, "I do think we should wipe clean corporate welfare in this state," according to Business Insider, which raises questions for companies that moved here partly for incentives.

What supporters expect. Economists interviewed by the Tribune pointed to fundamentals that don't depend on who is in office: a large population, diverse industries, natural resources and location. "What we're really seeing now is a change in who is enforcing the rules in this economy more than a change in the rules," said Jake Bradt of the University of Texas at Austin. Rottinghaus added: "I think the Democratic victories look less like a rejection of the Texas Miracle and more of an effort to revise it around contemporary issues like affordability and accountability."

The Texas Association of Business, the state chamber of commerce, struck a cooperative tone. "For more than a century, TAB has worked with Texas leaders from both parties to strengthen our economy and expand opportunity," wrote president and CEO Kelly Keel. (Texas Tribune)

The guardrails: Texas's ban on a personal income tax is in the state constitution, and the Republican Senate has signaled it will block major shifts. "There will not be radical Democratic Socialist bills coming through the Texas Senate," said state Sen. Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola, as quoted by the Tribune.

Energy Costs and Data Centers

Electricity bills feed directly into the cost of owning a home, and data centers became a campaign issue across the political spectrum.

What supporters expect. Hinojosa's platform says she "will direct the Public Utility Commission to freeze the rates residential customers pay until we have laws to ensure that data centers and other high-load users pay for themselves." She has called for a moratorium on new data center approvals until the Legislature acts. "We can have economic development and we can have protections for Texans. These things are not mutually exclusive," she told Politico, as quoted by The Texas Tribune. Gov. Abbott had already paused some data center approvals this year pending an audit expected to end in December.

What skeptics and critics expect. Elon Musk posted on X: "Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now," as reported by the Tribune. Shares of several Texas-linked data center and power companies fell after the election, according to Heatmap News. Analysts there said the real impact depends on whether projects already under way are affected. "If she was thinking of trying to go after projects that had begun the construction process, I think it would change the overall outlook a ton," said Brandt Vermillion of Modo Energy.

UT Austin research scientist Joshua Rhodes offered a middle view: "I don't think we're going to not build another data center in the state. But I think that they're going to be under quite a bit more scrutiny."

On oil and gas, Sen.-elect Talarico told CBS, "I want us to be an energy leader in the 21st Century like we were in the 20th," and the Texas Oil and Gas Association said it intends "to be a constructive partner in the legislative process." (Texas Tribune)

What it means for homeowners: a residential rate freeze would need action by the PUC, and its details are not known yet. Near DFW data center sites, slower development could mean less nearby construction, but also less of the traffic, noise and land-price pressure some neighbors have objected to.

Homeowners Insurance

Insurance has become one of the fastest-rising costs of owning a Texas home. In Texas, the insurance commissioner is appointed by the governor, so the new administration will be able to choose new leadership at the Texas Department of Insurance. As of November 5, none of the newly elected governors around the country had named a pick, according to a Troutman Pepper Locke analysis.

What supporters of change expect. Affordability was a central theme in insurance-related races nationwide, and the Troutman Pepper Locke analysis said insurers "should expect incoming regulators, particularly in Georgia and California, to take a close look at rate filings, underwriting factors, and claims practices." Homeowners who have seen steep renewals may welcome closer review of rate increases in Texas too.

What skeptics expect. The same national debate has another side. In California's race, for example, one candidate "emphasized stabilizing and restoring competition in the private market" rather than new state programs, according to that analysis. The concern from that camp is that tighter rate control can discourage insurers from writing new policies.

We could not find a detailed homeowners insurance plan from the incoming Texas administration, so treat any specific prediction with caution. Insurance prices are driven heavily by storm losses, rebuilding costs and reinsurance markets, which no state office controls.

Migration Trends

What skeptics expect. Miami Beach luxury agent Miltiadis Kastanis told Realtor.com: "You will see Texans start pre-planning a move to the Florida market," though he cautioned against expecting a mass exodus. (Realtor.com)

What supporters and many analysts expect. Tray Bates of Texas Realtors said: "It's far too early to predict migration based on one election. Domestic migration to Texas was already slowing before Tuesday, and housing costs are a major factor." Scott Norman of the Texas Association of Builders said simply: "I'm bullish on Texas."

Texas has added more than 2.6 million residents since 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures cited by Realtor.com. People move mostly for jobs, family and cost of living, so job data will tell you more than headlines.

Landlord-Tenant Law and HOAs

What supporters expect. The advocacy group Texas Housers told Realtor.com, "Basic tenant protections are also urgently needed," calling for eviction record sealing and clearer rental fees. Lt. Gov.-elect Goodwin has proposed property tax incentives for landlords who keep rents affordable, and Attorney General-elect Johnson has named algorithmic rent-setting as an enforcement concern.

What skeptics expect. The Texas Apartment Association expects proposals on tenant screening, eviction records and source-of-income rules. It argues that "every new duty or obligation placed on a housing provider is, functionally, a line item in the cost of housing." Its top priority is protecting the 2025 law that sped up removal of squatters. (TAA)

HOAs: we did not find any specific HOA reform proposals from the incoming leadership. Any change to HOA rules, such as dues, foreclosure or architectural rules, would require legislation and would take effect only after a bill passes both chambers.

Mortgage Rates: What the State Can and Can't Do

Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield and Federal Reserve policy, not state politics. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.18% for the week ending November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before, according to Freddie Mac data reported by Realtor.com. "Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week, improving the environment for prospective homebuyers against a backdrop of strong economic growth," said Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater.

Realtor.com's Hannah Jones said it is too early to tell whether the political shift will show up in the housing market. Nationally, she noted that "With 43% of active listings having had a price reduction, buyers who can afford to participate are in a relatively strong position, facing less competition and more price cuts."

What Texas can do: fund down payment assistance and affordable housing programs, change property tax and insurance rules that affect your monthly payment, and shape how fast homes get built. What Texas can't do: set the interest rate on your loan.

Divided Government: Two Views of What Comes Next

Both parties are already framing the 2027 session.

Democrats' view. House Democratic Caucus chair Gene Wu told KXAN: "I think if people are giving us a second chance, if people are giving Democrats a shot, even though like a lot of people may not have great feelings by Democrats, we have to live up to expectations." Lt. Gov.-elect Goodwin said: "We've talked on the campaign trail about affordability and we've got to file bills that will help people with affordability." (KXAN)

Republicans' view. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz posted on X: "We can be certain that the Democrats will overshoot." (X post) He also wrote: "We will rebuild as a true blue-collar party, not by embracing socialism but by being real free-market conservatives." (X post)

For real estate, divided government usually means slower, more negotiated change. That cuts both ways. Big new programs are harder to pass, and so are big rollbacks.

What to Watch Next: Timeline

Date	What Happens	Why It Matters for Real Estate
November 9, 2026	Bill pre-filing opens for the 2027 session	First look at real property tax, zoning and tenant bills
Late November to December 2026	Official canvass of election results; close House races settled	Confirms the final House margin
December 2026	State audit of data center grid connections expected to finish	Sets up the data center debate
January 1, 2027	Appraisal date for 2027 property values	Your 2027 value is set as of this date
January 12, 2027	90th Legislature convenes	House elects a speaker; Senate sets its rules
January 19, 2027	Gov.-elect Hinojosa takes office	Executive actions and appointments can begin
Spring 2027	Appraisal notices arrive; protest deadlines follow	File your protest on time no matter what passes
May 2027	Regular session ends	Final bills go to the governor to sign or veto
After the session	Any constitutional amendments go to voters	Large property tax changes typically need voter approval

Practical Guidance for Buyers, Sellers and Homeowners

None of this is a reason to panic or to rush. Here is how to think about it.

If You're Buying

Decide based on your timeline and budget, not the news cycle. Waiting for a law that may or may not pass is a gamble.
Get pre-approved and compare loan options. Builder rate buydowns and seller credits are still common in DFW, and they matter far more to your payment than state politics.
Estimate taxes using the current rules. Use today's $140,000 school homestead exemption and current local rates, then treat any future relief as a bonus.
File your homestead exemption as soon as you're eligible after closing.

If You're Selling

Price for the market you're in. Pricing is driven by inventory, days on market and local comparable sales.
Expect buyer questions about taxes and insurance. Have recent tax bills and insurance quotes ready.
Don't wait on Austin. If your move is driven by a job, family or a new home, the legislative calendar shouldn't decide your timing.

If You're Staying Put

Watch your 2027 appraisal notice and protest if your value looks high.
Shop your homeowners insurance at renewal, and review your deductible.
Track the session, especially bills on homestead exemptions, local tax limits and insurance.
If you own rentals, watch tenant-screening, eviction and fee-transparency bills and plan for possible lease changes.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Texas now a blue state?

Partly. Democrats won every statewide office on the 2026 ballot and are projected to control the Texas House, but Republicans still hold the Texas Senate. Most major laws will need support from both parties.

Will my property taxes go down in 2027?

Possibly, but nothing is guaranteed. Both parties support relief, but they disagree on how to pay for it. Any change would have to pass in the 2027 session, and large changes often require a constitutional amendment approved by voters.

Will home prices in DFW fall because of the election?

There is no evidence yet that the election has moved DFW home prices. Prices are driven by inventory, mortgage rates, jobs and new construction. Watch monthly market data, not headlines.

Can the governor lower mortgage rates?

No. Mortgage rates follow the bond market and Federal Reserve policy. The state can affect your total monthly cost through property taxes, insurance regulation and assistance programs.

Will companies stop moving to Texas?

Some business leaders have voiced concern, while economists point to Texas's size, location, resources and lack of a personal income tax, which is in the state constitution. Announcements over the next year will tell the real story.

When will we know what actually changes?

The Legislature meets from January 12, 2027 until late May 2027. Bills start being filed November 9, 2026. Most answers will come by early summer 2027.

Sources

Work With OnDemand Realty

Whatever happens in Austin, the best decisions come from knowing your local market. OnDemand Realty helps buyers, sellers and homeowners across Dallas-Fort Worth understand pricing, taxes and timing in plain terms. Visit www.ondemanddfw.com to search homes, request a home value estimate or connect with an OnDemand Realty agent.

Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and is not political, legal, tax or financial advice. OnDemand Realty does not endorse any candidate or party. Election results cited are unofficial until certified, and any policy outcome depends on legislation that has not yet been filed or passed. Quotes are attributed to their original sources. Consult a qualified tax professional, attorney or lender about your situation.